Search results for "Change point"
showing 8 items of 8 documents
Temporary Allee effects among non‐stationary recruitment dynamics in depleted gadid and flatfish populations
2021
Many considerably declined fish populations have not fully recovered despite reductions in fishing pressure. One of the possible causes of impaired recovery is the (demographic) Allee effect. To investigate whether low-abundance recruitment dynamics can switch between compensation and depensation, the latter implying the presence of the Allee effect, we analysed the stock–recruitment time series of 17 depleted cod-type and flatfish populations using a Bayesian change point model. The recruitment dynamics were represented with the sigmoidal Beverton–Holt and the Saila–Lorda stock–recruitment models, allowing the parameters of the models to shift at a priori unknown change points. Our synthes…
ICT Barriers and Critical Success Factors in Developing Countries
2013
Since the early 1990s, Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has been perceived as a catalyst for development. However, the UNICEF State of the World’s Children Report 2011 acknowledges that the poor in many developing countries remain largely excluded from ICT and its benefits. This paper aims to address three issues. Firstly, identify ICT barriers in the literature from 2000 to 2011. Secondly, identify ICT barriers through empirical findings and thirdly, categorize these barriers into critical success factors. These aims are achieved by comparing the findings in the literature to our recent empirical results. Two methodologies are used in this study, namely, a systematic literatu…
Una procedura sequenziale di stima di punto di cambiamento
2008
In this paper we propose a sequential procedure for the estimation of a change-point when a change has occurred in the distribution that governs the process which generates the observations. The procedure applies whether the distribution functions involved are completely specified or they contain unknown parameters to be estimated. The procedure is based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test of goodness of fit, or an appropriate different test such as the chi-square test, and satisfies the optimality condition defined by the maximization of the sum of the p-values involved.
Is fiscal fatigue a threat to consolidation programmes?
2015
Building on a narrative approach to identify episodes of fiscal consolidation, data for a group of 17 industrial countries over the period 1978-2009 and continuous-time duration models, we find evidence suggesting that the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending increases over time, but only for programs that last less than six years. Additionally, fiscal consolidations tend to last longer in non-European than in European countries. Our results emphasize that chronic fiscal imbalances might lead to a vicious austerity cycle, while discipline in the behaviour of fiscal authorities is a means of achieving credible and shorter adjustment measures. Therefore, fiscal fatigue is likely to com…
Booms, Busts and normal times in the housing market
2015
We assess the existence of duration dependence in the likelihood of an end in housing booms, busts, and normal times. Using data for 20 industrial countries and a continuous-time Weibull duration model, we find evidence of positive duration dependence suggesting that housing market cycles have become longer over the last decades. Then, we extend the baseline Weibull model and allow for the presence of a change-point in the duration dependence parameter.We show that positive duration dependence is present in booms and busts that last less than 26 quarters, but that does not seem to be the case for longer phases of the housing market cycle. For normal times, no evidence of change-points is fo…
Efficient change point detection in genomic sequences of continuous measurements
2010
Abstract Motivation: Knowing the exact locations of multiple change points in genomic sequences serves several biological needs, for instance when data represent aCGH profiles and it is of interest to identify possibly damaged genes involved in cancer and other diseases. Only a few of the currently available methods deal explicitly with estimation of the number and location of change points, and moreover these methods may be somewhat vulnerable to deviations of model assumptions usually employed. Results: We present a computationally efficient method to obtain estimates of the number and location of the change points. The method is based on a simple transformation of data and it provides re…
Statistical Picking of Multivariate Waveforms
2022
In this paper, we propose a new approach based on the fitting of a generalized linear regression model in order to detect points of change in the variance of a multivariate-covariance Gaussian variable, where the variance function is piecewise constant. By applying this new approach to multivariate waveforms, our method provides simultaneous detection of change points in functional time series. The proposed approach can be used as a new picking algorithm in order to automatically identify the arrival times of P- and S-waves in different seismograms that are recording the same seismic event. A seismogram is a record of ground motion at a measuring station as a function of time, and it typica…
Modelling Recurrent Events for Improving Online Change Detection
2016
The task of online change point detection in sensor data streams is often complicated due to presence of noise that can be mistaken for real changes and therefore affecting performance of change detectors. Most of the existing change detection methods assume that changes are independent from each other and occur at random in time. In this paper we study how performance of detectors can be improved in case of recurrent changes. We analytically demonstrate under which conditions and for how long recurrence information is useful for improving the detection accuracy. We propose a simple computationally efficient message passing procedure for calculating a predictive probability distribution of …